Behavioral Economics Seminar: The effect of the great recession and associated unemployment on NCD mortality

The Behavioral Economics group at Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO) invite to open seminars with a range of subjects within Behavioral Economics.

Bring your own lunch, and we provide knowledge and network.

Sinne Smed, Associate Professor at Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO), University of Copenhagen, will present The effect of the great recession and associated unemployment on NCD mortality.

Abstract

The resent global economic crisis starting in 2008, referred to as the Great recession, led to a serious economic crisis with negative growth and rising unemployment. In the same period food prices rose sharply with more than the average price level, implying that households experienced a sustained squeeze on household budgets that affected not only low income population groups, but also more well-off groups.

The objective of the current paper is to explore and describe quantitatively the effect of the economic crises, the stress imposed by the risk of unemployment as well as actual experienced unemployment on diet composition and NCD mortality. The analysis is based on a panel dataset running from 2008-2012 with monthly food purchase data with detailed nutritional information aligned with register-data on unemployment, region and age dependent unemployment rates as well as the consumer confidence index.  Unemployment was measured as a dichotomous indicator as well as a trend accounting for the duration of the unemployment period.

We use fixed effects econometric methods to estimate immediate behaviour and long run adjustments with the duration of the unemployment, as well as the effects of the region and age dependent unemployment rates and the consumer confidence index. The effects of the estimated dietary changes on NCD mortality is simulated using the PRIME model, linking diet and NCD mortality.

We find that all tree indicators increases NCD mortality.

For further information, contact:
Catrine Jacobsen, cj@ifro.ku.dk