Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*

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Groundwater management : Waiting for a drought*. / Amundsen, Eirik S.; Jensen, Frank.

In: Natural Resource Modeling, 21.01.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Amundsen, ES & Jensen, F 2019, 'Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*', Natural Resource Modeling. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12209

APA

Amundsen, E. S., & Jensen, F. (2019). Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*. Natural Resource Modeling, [e12205]. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12209

Vancouver

Amundsen ES, Jensen F. Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*. Natural Resource Modeling. 2019 Jan 21. e12205. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12209

Author

Amundsen, Eirik S. ; Jensen, Frank. / Groundwater management : Waiting for a drought*. In: Natural Resource Modeling. 2019.

Bibtex

@article{d83675df382047f9ac189fef1644a599,
title = "Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*",
abstract = "In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady-state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers:. We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers: Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account. A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management. A buffer stock of water should be built-up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.",
keywords = "drought, groundwater management, uncertainty",
author = "Amundsen, {Eirik S.} and Frank Jensen",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "21",
doi = "10.1111/nrm.12209",
language = "English",
journal = "Natural Resource Modeling",
issn = "0890-8575",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Groundwater management

T2 - Waiting for a drought*

AU - Amundsen, Eirik S.

AU - Jensen, Frank

PY - 2019/1/21

Y1 - 2019/1/21

N2 - In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady-state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers:. We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers: Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account. A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management. A buffer stock of water should be built-up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

AB - In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady-state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers:. We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers: Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account. A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management. A buffer stock of water should be built-up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

KW - drought

KW - groundwater management

KW - uncertainty

U2 - 10.1111/nrm.12209

DO - 10.1111/nrm.12209

M3 - Journal article

JO - Natural Resource Modeling

JF - Natural Resource Modeling

SN - 0890-8575

M1 - e12205

ER -

ID: 212685067