TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the effect of compliance with Nordic nutrition recommendations on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the Nordic countries

AU - Saha, Sanjib

AU - Nordström, Jonas

AU - Mattisson, Irene

AU - Nilsson, Peter M.

AU - Gerdtham, Ulf G.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.

AB - The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.

KW - cardiovascular diseases

KW - dietary guidelines

KW - health Benefit

KW - macro simulation model

KW - Nordic countries

KW - Nordic diet

KW - recommended intake

U2 - 10.3390/nu11061434

DO - 10.3390/nu11061434

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 31242671

AN - SCOPUS:85068933447

VL - 11

JO - Nutrients

JF - Nutrients

SN - 2072-6643

IS - 6

M1 - 1434

ER -