Modelling the effect of compliance with Nordic nutrition recommendations on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the Nordic countries

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Sanjib Saha, Jonas Nordström, Irene Mattisson, Peter M. Nilsson, Ulf G. Gerdtham

The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1434
JournalNutrients
Volume11
Issue number6
Number of pages17
ISSN2072-6643
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jun 2019

    Research areas

  • cardiovascular diseases, dietary guidelines, health Benefit, macro simulation model, Nordic countries, Nordic diet, recommended intake

ID: 225556578