TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty and climate change adaptation

T2 - a systematic review of research approaches and people’s decision-making

AU - Moure, Mar

AU - Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

AU - Smith-Hall, Carsten

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Purpose of ReviewThis review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97). Recent FindingsUncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied.SummaryDespite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.

AB - Purpose of ReviewThis review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97). Recent FindingsUncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied.SummaryDespite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.

U2 - 10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x

DO - 10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x

M3 - Review

VL - 9

SP - 1

EP - 26

JO - Current Climate Change Reports

JF - Current Climate Change Reports

SN - 2198-6061

ER -