TY - JOUR

T1 - Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change

T2 - a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany

AU - Yousefpour, Rasoul

AU - Temperli, Christian

AU - Bugmann, Harald

AU - Elkin, Che

AU - Hanewinkel, Marc

AU - Meilby, Henrik

AU - Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

AU - Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

N1 - Published online 1 April 2013

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change.

AB - We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change.

KW - Faculty of Science

KW - Forest management

KW - Climate Change

KW - decision making under uncertainty

U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.004

DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.03.004

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 23557671

VL - 122

SP - 56

EP - 64

JO - Journal of Environmental Management

JF - Journal of Environmental Management

SN - 0301-4797

ER -