Suitability of habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea now and under predicted future changes in climate

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Bikram Shrestha
  • Spyros Tsiftsis
  • Chapagain, Deep
  • Chhatra Khadka
  • Prakash Bhattarai
  • Neelima Kayastha Shrestha
  • Marta Alicja Kolanowska
  • Pavel Kindlmann

Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

Original languageEnglish
Article number467
JournalPlants
Volume10
Issue number3
Number of pages21
ISSN2223-7747
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Bibliographical note

This article belongs to the Special Issue "Orchid Distribution, Evolutionary Ecology, and Population Dynamics"

    Research areas

  • Climate change, Dactylorhiza hatagirea, Himalaya, Medicinal plant, Nepal, Orchidaceae

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