Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains
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Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production : spatial representation of Markov chains. / Bojesen, Mikkel; Skov-Petersen, Hans; Gylling, Morten.
Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2013.Research output: Working paper › Research
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production
T2 - spatial representation of Markov chains
AU - Bojesen, Mikkel
AU - Skov-Petersen, Hans
AU - Gylling, Morten
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.
AB - This paper forecasts the spatial distribution of Danish husbandry production from 2009 until 2025. The study builds on a time series data set (1999 – 2009) for the number of livestock units (including piglets, finishers, sows, dairy cattle and young stock) measured by 1km2 grid cells for the whole of Denmark. A Markov Chain Model (MCM) was applied to estimate transition probabilities for the future livestock intensity composition, divided into state classes. Neighbouring effects between grid cells were not included. The modelled transition probabilities fit the data very well in all state classes, except for those farms which are in the largest state class. Regional differences in development trends were documented. The strategic objective of the model is to provide data for the spatial assessment of the potential of biogas production which can form the basis for a location analysis for future biogas plants.
M3 - Working paper
T3 - IFRO Working Paper
BT - Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production
PB - Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen
ER -
ID: 54579164