The impact of Alzheimer's disease on the chinese economy
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The impact of Alzheimer's disease on the chinese economy. / Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Arrighi, H Michael; Smith, Richard D.
In: EBioMedicine, Vol. 4, 2016, p. 184-190.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of Alzheimer's disease on the chinese economy
AU - Keogh-Brown, Marcus R
AU - Jensen, Henning Tarp
AU - Arrighi, H Michael
AU - Smith, Richard D
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - BACKGROUND: Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment.METHODS: AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011-2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed.FINDINGS: Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011-50 from 6-28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%.INTERPRETATION: Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011-2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.
AB - BACKGROUND: Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment.METHODS: AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011-2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed.FINDINGS: Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011-50 from 6-28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%.INTERPRETATION: Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011-2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.
U2 - 10.1016/j.ebiom.2015.12.019
DO - 10.1016/j.ebiom.2015.12.019
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 26981556
VL - 4
SP - 184
EP - 190
JO - EBioMedicine
JF - EBioMedicine
SN - 2352-3964
ER -
ID: 161083369