TY - JOUR

T1 - Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks

T2 - Effects of three different aspects of uncertainty

AU - Schou, Erik

AU - Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

AU - Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

PY - 2015/1

Y1 - 2015/1

N2 - Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible developments and impacts and the related uncertainty will affect the combined decision on timing of final harvest and the choice of species for regeneration. We analyse harvest of a Norway spruce stand with the option to regenerate with Norway spruce or oak. We use simulated variations in biophysical risks to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty will prevail for a longer period of time, they may make sub-optimal decisions ex ante.Keywords

AB - Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible developments and impacts and the related uncertainty will affect the combined decision on timing of final harvest and the choice of species for regeneration. We analyse harvest of a Norway spruce stand with the option to regenerate with Norway spruce or oak. We use simulated variations in biophysical risks to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty will prevail for a longer period of time, they may make sub-optimal decisions ex ante.Keywords

U2 - 10.1016/j.forpol.2014.09.006

DO - 10.1016/j.forpol.2014.09.006

M3 - Journal article

VL - 50

SP - 11

EP - 19

JO - Forest Policy and Economics

JF - Forest Policy and Economics

SN - 1389-9341

ER -