TY - JOUR

T1 - The effects of the Danish saturated fat tax on food and nutrient intake and modelled health outcomes

T2 - an econometric and comparative risk assessment evaluation

AU - Smed, Sinne

AU - Scarborough, P.

AU - Rayner, M.

AU - Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Background/Objective: The World Health Organisation recommends governments to consider the use of fiscal policies to promote healthy eating. However, there is very limited evidence of the effect of food taxation in a real-life setting, as most evidence is based on simulation studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the Danish tax on saturated fat in terms of changes in nutritional quality of the diet, that is, changes in saturated fat consumption, as well as other non-targeted dietary measures, and to model the associated changes in mortality for different age groups and genders.Subjects/Methods: On the basis of household scanner data, we estimate the impact of the tax on consumption of saturated fat, unsaturated fat, salt, fruit, vegetables and fibre. The resultant changes in dietary quality are then used as inputs into a comparative risk assessment model (PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl)) to estimate the effect of these changes on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality.Results: The tax resulted in a 4.0% reduction in saturated fat intake. Vegetable consumption increased, and salt consumption increased for most individuals, except younger females. We find a modelled reduction in mortality with 123 lives saved annually, 76 of them below 75 years equal to 0.4% of all deaths from NCDs.Conclusions: Modelling the effect of the changes in diet on health outcomes suggests that the saturated fat tax made a positive, but minor, contribution to public health in Denmark.

AB - Background/Objective: The World Health Organisation recommends governments to consider the use of fiscal policies to promote healthy eating. However, there is very limited evidence of the effect of food taxation in a real-life setting, as most evidence is based on simulation studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the Danish tax on saturated fat in terms of changes in nutritional quality of the diet, that is, changes in saturated fat consumption, as well as other non-targeted dietary measures, and to model the associated changes in mortality for different age groups and genders.Subjects/Methods: On the basis of household scanner data, we estimate the impact of the tax on consumption of saturated fat, unsaturated fat, salt, fruit, vegetables and fibre. The resultant changes in dietary quality are then used as inputs into a comparative risk assessment model (PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl)) to estimate the effect of these changes on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality.Results: The tax resulted in a 4.0% reduction in saturated fat intake. Vegetable consumption increased, and salt consumption increased for most individuals, except younger females. We find a modelled reduction in mortality with 123 lives saved annually, 76 of them below 75 years equal to 0.4% of all deaths from NCDs.Conclusions: Modelling the effect of the changes in diet on health outcomes suggests that the saturated fat tax made a positive, but minor, contribution to public health in Denmark.

U2 - 10.1038/ejcn.2016.6

DO - 10.1038/ejcn.2016.6

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 27071513

VL - 70

SP - 681

EP - 686

JO - European Journal of Clinical Nutrition

JF - European Journal of Clinical Nutrition

SN - 0954-3007

IS - 6

ER -