TY - RPRT

T1 - Formulation of baseline projections and documentation on modeling approach review

T2 - D7.1

AU - Yu, Wusheng

AU - Clora, Francesco

N1 - Project Acronym and Name: "EU Calculator: trade-offs and pathways towards sustainable and low-carbon European Societies -EUCalc" EUCalc Deliverable 7.1 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730459.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - This report documents the development of the baseline projection to 2050 for use in the CGE modelling work contained in WP7. The main purpose of the baseline construction is to establish a likely business-as-usual scenario towards 2050, against which the transboundary effects of alternative EU decarbonization pathways can be estimated. The main components of the baseline are annual GDP projections and associated drivers such as population, labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivities for individual countries including all EU Member States. The principal data sources are recent model-based projections, particularly the EU-Reference Scenario 2016 and various other projections related to the SSP2 scenarios. Additionally, this report contains a review of the existing modelling approaches towards baseline constructions and a discussion on how the baseline can be replicated/calibrated within the EUCalc framework. A brief review on the CGE model selection and on how to represent the alternative EU decarbonization pathways relative to the baseline in the chosen model is also offered.

AB - This report documents the development of the baseline projection to 2050 for use in the CGE modelling work contained in WP7. The main purpose of the baseline construction is to establish a likely business-as-usual scenario towards 2050, against which the transboundary effects of alternative EU decarbonization pathways can be estimated. The main components of the baseline are annual GDP projections and associated drivers such as population, labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivities for individual countries including all EU Member States. The principal data sources are recent model-based projections, particularly the EU-Reference Scenario 2016 and various other projections related to the SSP2 scenarios. Additionally, this report contains a review of the existing modelling approaches towards baseline constructions and a discussion on how the baseline can be replicated/calibrated within the EUCalc framework. A brief review on the CGE model selection and on how to represent the alternative EU decarbonization pathways relative to the baseline in the chosen model is also offered.

M3 - Report

BT - Formulation of baseline projections and documentation on modeling approach review

PB - EUCALC

ER -