TY - JOUR

T1 - The role of material resources for rapid technology diffusion in net-zero transitions

T2 - Insights from EV lithium-ion battery Technological Innovation System in China

AU - Gong, Huiwen

AU - Andersen, Allan Dahl

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - A key challenge to achieving a net-zero transition by mid-century is rapid diffusion of several low-carbon technologies which requires massive upscaling of production capacity including vast use of material resources. However, both diffusion theory and main transition studies frameworks pay insufficient attention to the role of material resources. To better understand the relationships between diffusion, production, and material use in technology diffusion and transitions, we conceptually elaborate the role of material resources in the value chain perspective on Technological Innovation Systems (TIS). We account for how material scarcity appears and how it influences TIS structural and functional dynamics with particular attention to how actors along the value chain respond. Our study of China's Electric Vehicle lithium-ion battery TIS value chain shows that a shortage of critical materials occurred due to structural tensions between sectoral regimes along the value chain which influenced the TIS structural and functional dynamics both within and across sectors. The study contributes new insights on the role of materials in TIS and circular value chains, on how the TIS growth and diffusion phase unfolds, and on how urgency of a net-zero transition and geopolitics influence diffusion.

AB - A key challenge to achieving a net-zero transition by mid-century is rapid diffusion of several low-carbon technologies which requires massive upscaling of production capacity including vast use of material resources. However, both diffusion theory and main transition studies frameworks pay insufficient attention to the role of material resources. To better understand the relationships between diffusion, production, and material use in technology diffusion and transitions, we conceptually elaborate the role of material resources in the value chain perspective on Technological Innovation Systems (TIS). We account for how material scarcity appears and how it influences TIS structural and functional dynamics with particular attention to how actors along the value chain respond. Our study of China's Electric Vehicle lithium-ion battery TIS value chain shows that a shortage of critical materials occurred due to structural tensions between sectoral regimes along the value chain which influenced the TIS structural and functional dynamics both within and across sectors. The study contributes new insights on the role of materials in TIS and circular value chains, on how the TIS growth and diffusion phase unfolds, and on how urgency of a net-zero transition and geopolitics influence diffusion.

U2 - 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123141

DO - 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123141

M3 - Journal article

VL - 200

JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

SN - 0040-1625

M1 - 123141

ER -