Envisioning the future by predicting the past: proxies, praxis and prognosis in paleoclimatology
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Standard
Envisioning the future by predicting the past : proxies, praxis and prognosis in paleoclimatology. / Skrydstrup, Martin.
In: Futures, Vol. 92, 2017, p. 70-79.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Author
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Envisioning the future by predicting the past
T2 - proxies, praxis and prognosis in paleoclimatology
AU - Skrydstrup, Martin
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - This article contrasts two different modes of foretelling the future within paleoclimatology. The first is represented by Danish paleoclimatology and their project of deep-ice core drilling in Greenland, which seeks to profile a specific climatic period called "the Eemian". Dating approximately from 125,000 to 115,000 years BP, the Eemian was the last warm interglacial period before the advent of the Holocene some 12000 years BP, and thus serves as an analogue to contemporary global warming. I contrast this mode of prognostication with the temperature curve by Michael Mann et al. (1998), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future. In the second case we have a thoroughly modern technology of anticipation, predicated on Enlightenment ideas about the visual economy of chronological timelines. From the vantage point of this contrast, I discuss the political nature of proxies, where I argue that the STS-field could be more attentive to the imaginations and aspirations of the paleoclimatologists themselves.
AB - This article contrasts two different modes of foretelling the future within paleoclimatology. The first is represented by Danish paleoclimatology and their project of deep-ice core drilling in Greenland, which seeks to profile a specific climatic period called "the Eemian". Dating approximately from 125,000 to 115,000 years BP, the Eemian was the last warm interglacial period before the advent of the Holocene some 12000 years BP, and thus serves as an analogue to contemporary global warming. I contrast this mode of prognostication with the temperature curve by Michael Mann et al. (1998), which demonstrate that global mean temperatures have risen in conjunction with the consumption of fossil fuels visualized in a graph that became known as the "Hockey Stick". I argue that in the first case we have a form of analogue reasoning, which predicts the past in order to envision the future. In the second case we have a thoroughly modern technology of anticipation, predicated on Enlightenment ideas about the visual economy of chronological timelines. From the vantage point of this contrast, I discuss the political nature of proxies, where I argue that the STS-field could be more attentive to the imaginations and aspirations of the paleoclimatologists themselves.
KW - Greenland
KW - Hockey stick
KW - Ice cores
KW - Paleoclimatology
KW - Prediction
KW - Proxies
U2 - 10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.004
DO - 10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.004
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85016640433
VL - 92
SP - 70
EP - 79
JO - Futures
JF - Futures
SN - 0016-3287
ER -
ID: 178846960